R.K. Pachauri, Sharmila Barathan
Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi
Globally, a range of human activities that characterize modern economic systems are leading to emissions of greenhouse gases. For some activities like the cultivation of paddy rice in flooded soils, there is reason to believe that there are no economically viable or practical alternatives to the current methods which produce these emissions. However, there are several other areas of human activity ranging from the generation of electricity to the provision of passenger and freight transport, in which there clearly exists the potential for preparing the agenda for change which would mitigate global warming.
The objective of this paper is to discuss and evaluate a suitable mix of innovative measures which would make efficient use of scarce resources and maximize returns from the resources invested to limit CO2 emissions. In particular, this paper evolves a three phase approach for mitigating CO2 emissions that can be widely applied to reorient economic development policies in the developing world. Comprising an agenda for change, it underlines specific failures in national policies, identifies thrust areas for mitigating CO2 emissions and suggests policy responses in major sectors of the economy. The guiding premise here is simple and straightforward - the energy sector (inclusive of the services provided by energy rather than energy per se) which has been a major cause for invoking the threat of climate change and global warming, must now become a part of the solution.
Evaluation of costs and economic impacts of GHG mitigation strategies is generally carried out through the construction and simulation of quantitative economic models. There are a number of global top-down and bottom-up models used for this purpose. Some of the top-down models include CRTM: Carbon Rights Trade Model, ERM: Edmonds-Reilly Model, GREEN: OECD model, IEA: International Energy Agency Model, MR: Manne-Richels Global 2100 Model and WW: Whalley-Wigley model. The three major sets of bottom-up studies relating to GHGs mitigation involving several developing countries include the "Collaborative Study On Strategies to Limit CO2 Emissions in Asia and Brazil" carried out by the Asian Energy Institute (AEI), "CO2 Emissions from Developing Countries: Better Understanding of the Role of Energy in the Long Term", undertaken by Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, USA and " UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies", by the UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), Denmark. The results from a few of the aforementioned studies are furnished in Annexures I-IV.
The developing countries are still seen as relatively small players on the energy scene. In 1970 they accounted for only 15% of global demand for commercial energy. Over the intervening twenty years upto 1990, despite the crippling effects for many of the oil price rises and heavy indebtedness, their commercial energy consumption nearly doubled and now accounts for 26% of the global total. These statistics do not include non-commercial sources of energy. Most scenarios foresee demand in developing countries at least doubling from 1990 to 2010, and doubling again to 2030, by which stage they would probably account for at least half of global energy consumption.(Grubb M. et al 1990). However, per capita energy consumption will continue to be substantially higher in the developed countries, as projected by Holdren and Pachauri (1991) and furnished in Table 1.
To expect the developing countries to cut down on fossil fuel consumption may seem unfair, given that there exist enormous disparities between their stages of development and fossil fuel consumption. Also, it would be inequitable and unfair to propose that the developing countries forego opportunities for bettering their standards of living in order to solve a global problem which in any case is not of their making. It is time that the ICs examine their luxurious lifestyles, its resource contents and environmental consequences as consumption is seen to be the driving force behind production. Production is directed towards fulfilling the demand. If proposals from scientists were observed, CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by about 80% especially in the ICs (Fischer W., 1993).
Table 1.Conventional projections for use of industrial energy forms.
Actual Projectio n 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Population (millions) IC 1075 1158 1215 1260 1295 1315 DC 3310 4085 5000 5900 6750 7575 Energy use/person (watts) BAU IC 7170 7255 7360 7465 7570 7675 DC 615 770 965 1205 1500 1880 Energy efficient scenario (Anderson) * IC 7170 7255 7435 7225 6325 6285 DC 615 770 950 1340 1720 2300 Total energy use (terawatts) BAU IC 7.7 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.1 DC 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.1 10.1 14.2 World Total 9.7 11.5 13.8 16.5 19.9 24.3 Energy efficient scenario (Anderson) * IC 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.2 8.3 DC 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.9 11.6 17.2 World Total 9.7 11.5 13.8 17.0 19.8 25.7
Note: BAU results have been obtained by extrapolating 1980-90 rates of increase in per capita use of industrial energy forms for industrialised and developing countries.
* Anderson D (1991). Energy and the Environment. Special Briefing Paper No. 1, Edinburgh, Scotland: The Wealth of Nations Foundation.
A multitude of complex and interacting causes are responsible for the increase in CO2 emissions in developing countries. Quite often national policies are understandably influenced more by developmental priorities and less so by environmental concerns, including those related to climate change. Economic growth, social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities in developing countries and are themselves essential to meeting national and global sustainability objectives. This coupled with the underlying institutional weaknesses in the existing framework have to some extent led to the deterioration of the environment.
Much of this will call for a decisive change in world political and economic trends. We have witnessed a cross-section of the developing world including Africa, Asia and South America move to greater economic liberalization and free market structure in recent years. Yet, the impact of such a move is not felt due to the structural obstacles which still persist. Against these harsh economic realities some questions still remain unanswered, such as, how should the transition take place; under what time frames; and who will pay, etc.
In India it is observed that there are specific aspects of national policy which are complementary to commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (e.g stress on renewables) or potentially conflict with them (e.g increased reliance on coal). Similarly, in China, the use of its abundant coal resources is seen as the key to its industrial future.
In a developing country like India, prices of all the major fuels (except firewood and other biomass) are administered; the stated purpose being to pursue certain social objectives. The prices do not, in general, reflect economic costs. For instance, kerosene is subsidized, it is viewed as the major commercial fuel used by low-income households, although it is well known that low-income households may not always get the intended benefits. Since the mid-1960s, the use of policy instruments to achieve stable, efficient and balanced growth of agriculture (itself considered a precondition for economic growth) has been officially adopted by the Government of India. The electricity supply to this sector was, hence, subsidized. Electricity sales to rural farmers take place at tariffs which are the lowest (compared to other categories of consumers), while the costs borne by utilities for supplying electricity to them are the highest. This has encouraged the inefficient use of electricity in the rural sector. In the process, externalities are completely ignored and so are the related environmental concerns. The production of foodgrains has increased from 50,825 thousand tonnes in 1950-51 to 176,390 thousand tonnes in 1990-91. However, the difference between the average revenue realized and the average cost of supplying electricity to the agricultural sector in India has also been increasing as is evident from Table 2.
Table 2.Agricultural tariffs in India.
Year Avg. cost Avg. revenue (paise/Kwh) (paise/Kwh) 1974-75 22.52 18.0 1980-81 41.9 18.84 1985-86 74.84 18.15 1990-91 110.20 14.34
The same is the case in China where with some exceptions, energy prices have been kept well below world prices. Price reform is difficult, particularly given the political trends since 1989. The price structure for energy not only gives the wrong incentives as regards energy saving, but it has effects on production. The long-term marginal cost of coal is estimated to be nearly twice as much as the price at the state-owned mines. Estimates indicate that new mines cannot cover the costs of exploiting the resources. In contrast, the price of natural gas is the lowest in terms of heating value, thus discouraging further exploration of gas. The result is that the demand by consumers has outstripped supply and encouraged the inefficient use of gas. In India, the price of coal is based on the average cost of supply of the resource which partially takes into account the "environmental cost". This includes the cost of direct pollution control and excludes cost of degraded forest land etc. Hence, quite apart from common market failures, the government has also failed to incorporate externalities. A study carried out by TERI on environmental issues in coal mining and associated costs indicates that the average environmental cost under certain scenarios which were constructed is in the range of 4.2%-4.9% of the average price of coal. This is however a very conservative estimate, because only the direct costs of rehabilitating areas devastated by opencast mining were considered in the study.
Markets worldwide fail to reflect the full economic and social cost of environmental problems. "Full cost" pricing is fundamental to reducing the consumption of resources in virtually all sectors. Market failures are further exacerbated by government actions or policy failures that encourage inefficient resource use such as the subsidized provision of electricity. Other policy failures are tied to inappropriate tax incentives, trade polices and exchange rates that lead to environmental problems. Related to policy failure is the inability of the existing institutions to formulate, implement, and enforce environmental policies. Weak institutional capacity is further weakened by jurisdictional complexity, insufficient information, and lack of broader participation. Further, in developing countries, institutional weaknesses are acute at the level of local governments and agencies who are responsible for monitoring and enforcement of the mechanisms. A multiplicity of actors with overlapping, uncoordinated or poorly defined responsibilities aggravates institutional weaknesses and hampers the development and implementation of the climate change action plan.
Environmental protection is further constrained by the lack of related information and analytical frameworks for understanding the problems. Furthermore, the lack of user participation usually results in inadequate support for mitigation activities.
While assessing the opportunities for pursuing a mitigation strategy in the energy sector, it is quite important to recognize that more energy is required to facilitate economic growth in the developing world. These countries must rely on the energy sources available to them, not necessarily the most sustainable energy systems. In some of the developing countries, the energy policy framework favours the extension of energy supply in comparison to demand oriented measures and policies. The bottom line is: strategies to mitigate GHG emissions are not simply a function of resource conditions and cost effectiveness but include broad cultural, political and socio-economic factors.
A point that warrants mention is that mitigation strategies would have benefits for both the global and local environment. One such joint product is the reduction in pollution due to measures undertaken to reduce CO2 emissions. Others include increase in energy security, economic development, etc. A switch to renewable sources of energy or afforestation measures have many more environmental benefits. However, all mitigation costing exercises have weighed the cost against a single benefit of GHG emission reduction.
Such a national mitigation strategy will provide important statements of overall guidance and coordination of multiple agendas for sustainable development. Estimated emissions from energy consumption in India for 2009-10 revealed that measures aimed at reducing CO2 emissions also resulted in reduced emissions of SO2, NOx, CO and SPM. Figure 1 presents the three emissions scenarios for India depicting that alternative strategies of energy conservation result in reduced emissions of CO2 and pollutants like SO2, NOx, CO and SPM.
Figure 1.Emissions from energy consumption 2009-10.
As mentioned earlier, this paper uses a three phase approach to examine the strategy to limit CO2 emissions. The alternative responses to the present situation may be summarized by reference to three scenarios:
I. Technology change
II. Structural change
III. Development of sinks
a. Energy conservation and improvements in energy efficiency through upgradation of currently employed technologies
This option can be implemented in a short duration and the benefits could be expected to accrue within a short term. However, the word of caution is that as the supply system in most developing countries is constrained, energy conservation is not likely to reduce demand though the supply system is enhanced. It is also true that some countries in the developing world are quite skeptical about energy conservation. In the case of China it is felt that: 'Even large international aid for energy conservation is unlikely to have the required effect in the absence of a drastic reform of energy pricing combined with the adoption of profit maximising objectives for enterprises.'
For this option, the policies would be aimed at individual firms, acting as the driving force for the evolution of an environmentally responsible firm. There is a huge, and still largely unexploited, role for personal initiative in a micro-enterprise in mitigating global climate change.
Policies to promote energy efficiency. Rational energy pricing - A keystone to the rapidly emerging field of environmental economics is the "full cost" of supplying energy. A drawback of pricing strategies is the difficulty of placing a precise value on many externalities. Where this is the case, more careful research may provide the necessary information.
Within the national developmental perspective, the aims of an integrated energy policy should be to: reflect the real costs of various fuels to the economy, including depletion costs; encourage energy conservation with a graded tariff structure; promote inter-fuel substitution and renewable energy sources by introducing mill pricing and incorporate environmental costs in energy prices.
In India, it has been estimated that an increase of average energy prices to marginal costs will probably result in a 5-10% decrease in electricity demand and a 5% decrease in primary coal demand. Removal of subsidy on kerosene should reduce kerosene demand by anywhere between 10% and 20%. However, a rational system of energy pricing though necessary towards a regime of continued and sustainable energy efficiency enhancement is not sufficient.
Financial incentives - Experience shows that this may prove costly and less effective. However, it has helped in promoting the use of energy efficient technologies. It also tends to inhibit upgradation of the technology since allocation of a subsidy is specified on a particular model of the equipment.
However, financial incentives coupled with continuous upgradation of technology and an improvement in the administrative process could prove effective. The answer, to a large degree, depends on what is included in the policy equation.
Energy standards - To encourage the rational use of energy, substantial changes in goals and operations are frequently required. This could be achieved by evolving a set of standards that encourages the continuous upgradation and absorption of energy technologies in the most cost-effective manner. This has had excellent results in the US where now some refrigerators use 55% less energy than in 1972.
Labelling energy consuming equipment has been suggested by many as one of the more important options to promote efficiency. While in theory it was attractive, in practice the use of this tool has lead to problems in implementation, acceptance and effective follow-up that have hindered the success of labelling programmes.
Table 3 presented below compares the efficiencies of appliances in India and the USA. There exist significant differences in the efficiency of refrigerators and air conditioners which is attributed to the design of the compressor in order to sustain wide voltage fluctuations (in the case of India) since the supply of power is often poor.
Table 3.Efficiency of some appliances in India and USA.
Appliance Efficiency India USA (units) Refrigerator Kwh/day/litre 0.0121 0.0033 AC BTU/hr/watt 2.25 >3
Legislation - Experience in the US and elsewhere in OECD has shown that without the necessary legislative requirements for performance-based energy efficiency in commercial buildings, the necessary investments in efficient building attractive as they may appear on paper, will simply not be made.
b. Introduction of advanced technologies that are more efficient or based on renewable energy sources
This option is a fairly long term strategy requiring technology development and infrastructural modifications.
The shift from remedial to preventive technologies is seen as the basis of a primary strategy in response to global climate change. Though green technologies which are considered critical for reducing current level of emissions exist, there seem to co-exist a number of barriers to their deployment and diffusion on a pace and scale sufficient to effect fundamental change.
One should keep in mind that the experience of the international transfer of technology over the recent past has one striking feature. Much of the technology imported into the developing countries never reaches its design capacity, and its performance deteriorates significantly over its operational life. An evaluation of many aided projects (particularly in the power sector) shows that the performance of individual projects deteriorates over time because of inadequacies in the systems in which they have to operate.
This goes to prove that for technology transfer to be effective one requires to look over and beyond the transfer, to concentrate on the development of 'human-endowed technological capabilities'. The challenges involved in this are critical, though often overlooked. The reason for this is largely economic - these capabilities need a long time (on a business time-scale) to show results, and they translate into costs. And in an economic environment where change has been slow and regulated, there was no incentive to invest in these capabilities which, in turn, leads to decline in long-term performance.
Policies to promote technological development. Technology evolution is one of the pre-conditions to environmental evolution. The policies for this need to be three fold:
a. Create an awareness so as to feel the need for such technologies.
b. Provide financial and human resources to be utilized for this purpose.
c. Improve the scope and depth of technology transfer
Communications, education and training processes that can foster and institutionalize this ethic needs to be developed. The problem of a technology transformation is not primarily scientific and technical, it is one of policy end management.
Policies which aim at encouraging firms to develop capabilities to manage change by providing them opportunities to expand into new market segments need to be developed. A possible configuration to achieve this goal could be the establishment of venture capital funds to finance projects that involve some in-house engineering before commercial production can begin.
Having recognized the critical role of capability development, a significant increase in funding for this at the corporate level needs to be addressed. Typically, technology transfers do provide for some training, but the depth and scope of technology transfer to the developing world would have to be enhanced if indigenous capabilities are to be developed. Longer linkages, involvement of the recipient firms in problem solving associated with the technology elsewhere in the world, and in technology modification; and possibly their involvement in future technological development, would improve capability building in developing countries.
In the case of the renewable energy sector, the list of available innovative technologies for meeting diverse end-uses is impressive. However, the word of caution is that some of them have not achieved the level of maturity or conversion. The fundamental problem is that this sector has been accorded a low priority. Further, the resource allocation for this sector continues to remain insignificant.
a. Structural shift in economic activity taking into account the comparative advantage of the region/countries
Tools and techniques of analysis now need to be placed in more holistic frameworks in response to global warming and climate change. If there exists a clear understanding of the linkages and relationships between different sectors in a region, it would be worthwhile to work towards a structural shift in the economic activity where production of a particular commodity in a particular country is undertaken because of its comparatively more advantageous energy endowments over the other countries in the region.
Policy to promote a structural shift in economic activity. Partnership building is fundamental to sharing a common future. The idea of building partnerships for action encompasses the search for new forms of international cooperation. The first step in this process is to building on some of the existing regional networks and alliances like ASEAN, SAARC etc. A more liberal approach to technology cooperation can pay greater dividends than a narrow search for competitive advantage.
b. Promote a shift to low carbon fuels like natural gas and hydropower
Policies to promote fuel shifts. The major factors which constrain an accelerated growth of fuel shifts is a) high capital costs b) localized nature of the resource c) in the case of hydropower the rehabilitation of people displaced. The two major institutional changes required are:
Modifying the energy planning process: A more rational approach for planning for the energy sector requires an integrated set-up to conduct a full-energy chain analysis.
Consensual approach to siting decisions - are presently made on technical and political grounds. As with all forms of technology development these initiatives will be successful only if they involve the local people. Locally appropriate technology adaptation tends to reinforce rather than undermine indigenous economies. Several dams have higher siltation rates than planned because the local populace has changed its occupations leading to a change in the land use pattern.
c. Structural change within the consuming sectors
The largest component of the dramatic increases in oil in developing countries during the last decade has been in the transportation sector. Energy use for transportation has been growing rapidly in recent years in developing countries, and this high rate of growth is expected to continue in the future. from 1973 to 1986, oil use by developing countries increased by 60%. during this same period, oil used by OECD countries declined by 13%. Recent projections by the Department of Energy (DOE)in the USA indicate that the overwhelming majority (80%) of growth in oil consumption in the "free world" through the year 2010 could come from developing countries.
One such change that could come about is in the transport sector, by way of enhancement of public transport, increased attractiveness of public transport, carpooling and changes in the modal split. Widespread use of higher efficiency vehicles may be hindered by consumer demand for larger cars, engines with higher performance and by an increase in kilometers driven and increased congestion.
Policies to promote structural change within consuming sectors. The only macroeconomic tool used to curb petrol/diesel use has been to raise their prices. However, elasticity (especially for petrol) is low as a large percentage of automobiles is part of corporate fleets and often there are no real options available for transportation. Other measures required include taxation on cars and 2-wheelers which is inversely proportional to their energy intensity (kgoe per passenger/km), tax credits to companies/institutions that provide mass transport for commuting, and long-term tax breaks and/or low-cost capital for manufacturers developing energy efficient vehicles. Para transit should be encouraged by providing subsidized capital.
a. Sequestering carbon through afforestation
This strategy aims not really at limiting carbondioxide emissions but of sequestering it.
This last option needs an entirely different approach as opposed to the others. This needs to be linked to the role of biomass in the concerned regions. This strategy must integrate environmental concerns, forest resource based demands, economic initiatives, technological advancements, forest protection and policy development. Efforts are being made to develop sustainable approaches to forestry development that go beyond the traditional practice of sustainable yield.
This paper has examined the various options for limiting carbondioxide emissions in the developing world. These strategies are investigated within differing time frames, namely short term, medium term and long term.
Developing countries are confronted with a unique set of problems, which if they are to be met effectively require innovative approaches and structures and a major departure from business-as usual. Every technological and policy option for reducing emissions of GHGs faces some form of constraint to its widespread adoption and needs to be tackled on a case by case basis. Further, no single policy mechanism - neither incentive-based policies in general nor command-and-control approaches can be an environmental panacea. It is quite obvious that if frontiers of knowledge have to advance in meeting forthcoming challenges, innovation in action involving governments and other organizations would be an essential recipe for success. National mitigation strategies need to be recast in order to mitigate climate change, keeping in mind that such strategies, obviously reflect different ecological, development and cultural realities and agendas for problem solving.
Much of the success in stabilizing global climate is dependant on the substantive agreement and real progress on global compacts; looking beyond the Summits and Conventions. The actual record of success in implementing the conventions in many countries is more mixed than many enthusiastic endorsements suggest, but, on balance, appears positive. Promising directions for the future involve regional cooperation among the developing countries and multilateral and bilateral aid agencies to prioritise needs and avoid programme duplication, and more effective use of the financing mechanisms under the FCCC.
In the global negotiations that are likely to be pursued for implementation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, mitigation strategies would receive a great deal of attention. It is also possible that if mechanisms such as joint implementation of projects were to become operational, developing countries also may find it beneficial to assess the scope of mitigation strategies and associated economic implications, so that a shelf of projects and a set of priorities for action would be available.
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4IEA Model: CO2 emissions for the reference case (million tonnes)
Country grouping 1990 1995 2000 2005 OECD North America 1652.4 1821.2 1920.3 1991.3 Other OECD 1390.6 1453.5 1546.2 1640.6 OECD Total 3043.0 3274.7 3466.5 3631.9
Source: Vouyouks L. (1992). Carbon taxes and CO2 emissions targets: results from the IEA model. OECD Economics Department Working papers. No. 114.
5Edmonds-Reilly Model: CO2 emissions for the base case (million tonnes of C)
Country 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 USA 1383 1565 1764 1938 2143 2368 2514 2850 Other OECD 1307 1602 1793 1903 2019 2131 2279 2513 USSR & E.Europe 1494 1439 1583 1691 1855 2130 2432 2887 China & Asian 713 1010 1571 2450 3371 5101 6883 9409 CPEs 870 1093 1469 2031 2450 3184 3991 4920 Rest of the World World total 5767 6709 8180 10013 11838 14914 18099 22579
Source: Barns D.W, J.A. Edmonds and J.M. Reilly (1992). Use of the Edmonds-Reilly Model energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 113.
6Global 2100 Model: CO2 emissions under the business-as-usual scenario (billion tonnes of C)
USA OECD USSR China ROW Total 1990 1.430 1.375 1.055 0.641 1.502 6.003 2000 1.649 1.640 1.184 0.754 1.743 6.970 2010 1.850 1.855 1.323 0.937 2.189 8.153 2020 2.080 2.115 1.482 1.175 2.668 9.520 2030 2.553 2.555 1.590 1.487 3.456 11.640 2040 3.267 2.906 1.493 1.967 4.489 14.123 2050 3.278 3.129 1.372 2.508 4.704 14.992 2060 3.415 3.425 1.313 3.393 6.178 17.724 2070 3.675 3.816 1.501 4.673 8.195 21.861 2080 3.972 4.221 1.792 6.359 10.600 26.945 2090 4.262 4.600 2.098 8.413 13.285 32.658 2100 4.570 4.988 2.422 11.140 16.517 39.636
Source: Manne, A. (1992). Global 2100: alternative scenarios for reducing carbon emissions. OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 111.
Sector-wise specific cost of CO2 abatement (US$/tonne of carbon abated)
Country Unnata Unnata Cost-sa Improved Improv Urban Solar Chula Koopi ving firewood ed gasificat cooker store chulha lighti ion ng FL CFL Bangladesh 4.7 26.5 * * * * * * India * * * 14 12 86 * * China * * 9 * * * 42.3 64
Country T&D Nuclear Hydro Solar CC Wind Solar PV PFBC Coal Loss Power Power (oil generati washing Power fixed on ) Banglad 34.3 * * * * * * * * esh * 15 18.4 21 37 39 45 19 * China 34 * * 628 * 105 * * 3 India Countri Gas Bioga Solar Biomass Small Sewag Distille Municipal PV Wind es s thermal e ry solid pumps pumps CC plant systems hydro sludg effluent waste s e Banglad * * * * * * * * * * esh * * * * * * * * * * China 20 348 19 37 47 54 7 70 82 182 India
Afforestation & agriculture
Country Afforestation Pumpset Rectification Bangladesh 19.2 * China 26.3 * India 27 101
Country House-keepi Combustio Simple Process Co-generation Lighting ng O&M n improvemen control retrof t it Banglade 7.7 12.59 15.77 34.73 168.74 * sh 480.6 * * * * 810.0 China 14 * * * * * India Country High Variable Electr Electrolyt Installation of Upgradatio efficiency speed ic ic energy efficient n of motors drives ovens Processes equip. better technology inst. & control Banglade * * * * * * sh 496.2 468.4 551.2 87.4 * * China * * * * 33 77 India
Country Road Enhanced urban Enhanced rail maintenance transport freight movement Increase bus Metro fleet rail Bangladesh 93 * * * India * 88 121 221
* Not available/applicable
Source: AEI. 1992. Global Warming - Collaborative Study on Strategies to limit CO2 emissions in Asia and Brazil.
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