Wind Power Projects in the CDM:
Methodologies and Tools for Baselines, Carbon Financing and Substainability Analysis

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Background
1.2 Implications of Baseline Methodologies in the Marrakesh Accords
1.3 Carbon Financing
1.4 Sustainability and Socio-Economic Benefits

1. INTRODUCTION

2. THE UNFCCC AND THE CDM
2.1 Additionality
2.2 Crediting Periods
2.3 Adaptation Surcharge and Administrative Expenses of the CDM
2.4 Supplementarity
2.5 Exemptions for Small-Scale CDM Projects
2.6 Project Boundary and Emissions Leakage
2.7 The CDM Project Cycle

3. BASELINES FOR WIND POWER PROJECTS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Baselines
3.3 Project-Specific and Standardized Baselines
3.4 Internationally Approved Baseline Approaches and Concepts

4. STANDARDIZED BASELINES FOR ZAFARANA
4.1 CER Revenues
4.2 Which Baseline to Select
4.3 Conclusions

5. PROJECT-SPECIFIC BASELINES FOR ZAFARANA
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Static and Dynamic Baselines
5.3 Baseline Studies on the Egyptian Power System
5.4 Static Baseline Study
5.5 Wind Power Integration and CO2 Reduction Approach
5.6 Basic Assumptions
5.7 Electricity Demand, Hydro- and Wind Power Profiles
5.8 Wind Power and Substitution of Thermal Power
5.9 Baseline Electricity Supply System
5.10 CO2 Reduction by Wind Power in Egypt
5.11 Dynamic Baseline Study 1999-2010
5.12 Comparison of Results from Static and Dynamic Baselines

6. CARBON FINANCING: THE ZAFARANA EXAMPLE
6.1 Introduction 54
6.2 ADDITIONALITY ISSUES
6.3 “Quick Scan” CDM Valuation
6.4 Detailed CDM Financial Assessment
6.5 Results of Financial Modeling
6.6 Conclusions
6.7. Financial Summary

APPENDIX 1. FINANCIAL SPREADSHEET MODEL
Assumptions and inputs
Financial analysis
Reports

APPENDIX 2. REVENUES FROM WIND AND ELECTRICITY MARKETS
Introduction
CDM Baselines for the Zafarana Project
Model Features
Presentation Sheet
Running the Model

7. SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ZAFARANA
7.1 Introduction
7.2 The Approach
7.3 Indicators of Sustainability
7.4 Performance of the Zafarana Project
7.5. Contribution of the Project to the Sustainability of the Energy-Economic System
7.6 Multicriteria Assessment
7.7 Conclusions of the sustainability assessment

APPENDIX 3. QUANTIFYING SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS OF CDM PROJECTS:
METHODOLOGY AND A CASE STUDY FROM ZAFARANA
Introduction
Employment
Comprehensive Approach
Health
Foreign Currency Earnings

ANNEX 1

REFERENCES